Something that I have been talking about is slowly coming to fruition, and it is going to be the biggest test of any president’s term. The problem however is that the federal government for many years has sat and intervened when it should have allowed the market to correct itself. This coming from zerohedge.com
While many “conventional” indicators of US economic vibrancy and strength have lost their informational and predictive value over the past decade (GDP fluctuates erratically especially in Q1, employment is the lowest this century yet real wage growth is non-existent, inflation remains under the Fed’s target despite its $4.5 trillion balance sheet and so on), one indicator has remained a stubbornly fail-safe marker of economic contraction: since the 1960, every time Commercial & Industrial loan balances have declined (or simply stopped growing), whether due to tighter loan supply or declining demand, a recession was already either in progress or would start soon.
Last week I talked about how home buying is slowing down, mostly due to overvalued homes. Now it is starting to hit the commercial market there are many different factors that contribute to this. However seeing as this will likely push us into a recession it is time for us as a people to realize that government intervention in the free market needs to come to an end.
Think of how stagnant wages have been in the industry you work in. If you need to look it up it would not hurt for you to realize that you need to start investing in yourself to learn a new skill or multitude of skills.
Should the current rate of loan growth deceleration persist – and there is nothing to suggest otherwise – the US will post its first negative loan growth, or rather loan contraction since the financial crisis, in roughly 4 to 6 weeks.
An interesting point on loan dynamics here from Wolf Richter, who recently wrote that a while after the 1990/1991 recession was over, the NBER determined that the recession began in July 1990, eight month after C&I loans began to stall. “As such, the current seven-month stall is a big red flag. These stalling C&I loans don’t fit at all into the rosy credit scenario. Something is seriously wrong.”
However, it wasn’t until loan growth actually contracted, that the 1990 recession was validated. Well, the US economy is almost there again. And this time it’s not just C&I loan growth, or lack thereof, there is troubling.
I have spoken about how more than one market is about to make its crash and it looks like commercial loans is going to take a hit. Recessions can either be extremely large or they can barely be noticed, however we have seen that every time the government kicks the can down the road as it did with the TARP bailouts. We will just have to wait and see what this will look like in the weeks or months to come.